As the busy holiday shopping season approaches, global retailers can expect a 12% growth in online fraudulent activity in the upcoming holiday season, compared with the same period in 2015.
Furthermore, Card Not Present (CNP) global online fraud attempt rates are expected to increase 12% by volume over the same peak holiday period in 2015—with sales to increase by nearly the same rate (13%) in 2016. The 2015 trend of lower ticket prices will continue in 2016, caused by alternative shipping methods (e.g. buy online/pick-up in-store), low-priced electronics and promotions.
In the US, attempted fraud average ticket value (ATV), or a retailer’s average size of individual sales by credit card, is expected to decline from USD239 to USD219, an 8 % decrease.
The expected peak fraud attempt day will be Christmas Eve, with nearly 2.5 % fraud, due to the popularity of gift cards and last-minute shopping via buy online-pick up in-store.
When it comes to what type of purchases fraudsters aim to launch attacks on, these are cosmetics, cordless headphones, sneakers and other lower-priced items (including ‘Gift with Purchase’ products) that can be easily resold on the black market or via auction websites.
If we have a look over the attempted online fraud rate by region, the map looks like this: Africa: 4.3 %, Europe: 3.6 %, Asia: 3.6 %, South America: 2.3 %; North America: 1.6 %.
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