Number of cards in circulation to reach 13.6 bln by 2018

According to the “Global Payment Cards Data and Forecasts 2012-2018” report by research and consulting company RBR, strong growth in developing markets will drive global market to 13.6 billion cards by 2018. The same source indicates that the 10 billion cards in circulation worldwide correspond to an average of 2.3 cards per adult, but this varies from less than two in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to six in North America.

Research also unveils that with a share of 34 percent of the global card base, UnionPay extended its lead over the other card schemes in 2012 as a result of continuing growth in card numbers in China. UnionPay’s volume and value of payments remains considerably lower than those of Visa and MasterCard, however, owing to low card usage in China, where more than 99 percent of UnionPay cards are found.

Results show that 182 billion card payments were made worldwide in 2012, up 10 percent compared to 2011. Growth in the number of payments is forecast to be faster than that in the card base over the next six years, partly boosted by contactless cards in some markets. Consumers are becoming more accustomed to using cards at POS and more comfortable making purchases for smaller amounts – these factors together with improved levels of merchant acceptance are combining to drive usage.

According to data, North America and Western Europe account for 66 percent of the volume of card payments worldwide, compared to 26 percent of cards in issue. These two regions also have the highest ratios of card terminals to adults. As acceptance improves and customers are increasingly educated as to the benefits of card usage, the other regions are expected to gradually close this gap.

Despite the presence of a number of strong drivers of payment card growth, regulations threaten to restrict development. The Durbin Amendment in the US, which limits debit card interchange fees, has impacted the US debit card sector. Similarly, the European Commission’s proposal to cap interchange fees could hamper growth in a significant chunk of the global cards market as this may lead to fees being passed on to consumers and to a reduction in rewards programmes. This may in turn trigger a decrease in cardholding and card usage.