French ecommerce is expected to record EUR 90 billion by 2020

Xerfi-Precepta analysts, cited by Warc.com, have mentioned that local online sales are expected to rise up by 60% between 2014 and 2020, when they will account for some 6.5% of the total household consumption.

However, the rate is decreasing from 14% in 2013 to a predicted 11% in 2014 and 10% in 2015. A decline in average basket size, an increase in the number of individual transactions and the likelihood of the total universe of online shoppers reaching its limit are among the factors involved in the phenomenon.

Nevertheless, physical stores account for over 90% of retail trade. Xerfi-Precepta analysts have also noted that traditional distributors have taken 35% of the total sales of the top 30 ecommerce players and have said their influence would only grow, boosted by acquisitions such as that of online player Mistergooddeal by electrical retailer Darty.

Xerfi-Precepta analysts have suggested that ecommerce players have changed their business model to a B2B one and have become PSPs for other e-tailers. The report predicts that stores will become the hub of the buying process, with O2O activations and the digitisation of bricks-and-mortar outlets.

Xerfi-Precepta analysts also consider that the ecommerce potential for local shops, numbering 600,000 in 36,600 French communes, is significant. It has foreshadowed unions of local artisans and merchants creating online trading platforms to offer home delivery or collection from stores or lockers. It has admitted, however, that they could just as easily be overtaken by the major ecommerce players.

The markets that have pioneered online retail – books, CDs and home appliances –are expected to be rather less buoyant in future, with widespread restructuring likely as businesses merge or close.

But for relative newcomers to ecommerce, such as medical goods, jewellery, DIY/gardening, sporting goods and food, the outlook is more optimistic.

Check out our Cross-border Ecommerce Research section here for more info on specific ecommerce facts & figures, preferred payment methods, risk and fraud, as well as ecommerce legislation & regulation in France.