Bitget Wallet and Polymarket have released a Q1 2026 report showing prediction market trading volume reaching USD 25.7 billion in March.
The report, based on activity from 1.29 million wallets during the first quarter of 2026, found that trading volume on Polymarket reached USD 25.7 billion in March alone. The figures point to a structural change in how users engage with these platforms: participants are returning more frequently, trading across a wider range of categories, and extending their activity beyond cryptocurrency into sports, politics, and other event-driven markets.
Behaviour, not just volume
The behavioural data is notable. Among users studied, average active days rose from 2.5 to 9.9, while category participation expanded from 1.45 to 2.34. The data suggests markets are scaling through repeated engagement rather than larger individual trades, with 82.3% of participants trading under USD 10.000.
Sports emerged as the leading category in Q1 2026, generating USD 10.1 billion in volume. The cadence of global sporting events, recurring matches and tournaments, appears to support consistent return participation in a way that one-off political or financial events do not.
Crypto markets continue to function as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Familiar price mechanics and continuous market availability make the asset class a natural gateway. As user activity deepens, however, participation tends to broaden into other categories.
Political and geopolitical markets gain traction
Political markets generated USD 5 billion in Q1 2026 volume, including USD 2.41 billion attributed to geopolitics. The report notes that activity in this segment is no longer driven primarily by election cycles but is distributed across ongoing global developments, with participants responding to real-time news flow.
This reflects a broader trend identified in the report: prediction markets are moving away from event-driven spikes toward continuous use as a framework for expressing views on uncertainty as it unfolds.
Infrastructure and access
As participation deepens, the report highlights usability and discovery as growing priorities. With an expanding range of markets and real-time information flows to navigate, wallets are identified as central access points, sitting at the intersection of asset management and market execution.
Industry projections cited in the report estimate annual volume reaching USD 240 billion by the end of 2026, with a longer-term trajectory towards USD 1 trillion. If sustained, that trajectory would represent a significant repositioning of prediction markets within the broader financial infrastructure landscape, where distribution and access would become as consequential as the underlying markets themselves.
