According to a report titled Forecast: Mobile Payment, Worldwide, 2013 Update and issued by information technology research and advisory company Gartner, Near Field Communications (NFCs) transaction value has been reduced by more 40 percent throughout the forecast period due to disappointing adoption of NFC technology in all markets in 2012 and the fact that some high-profile services are struggling to gain traction. Gartner forecasts that NFC will account for only about 2 percent of total transaction value in 2013 and 5 percent of the total transaction value in 2017, although growth is expected to increase somewhat from 2016 when the penetration of NFC mobile phones and contactless readers increases.
The report has also found that money transfers and merchandise purchases are set to account for about 71 percent and 21 percent of total transaction value in 2013, respectively, making them by far the largest contributors. However, worldwide, people are not purchasing as much because the buying experience on mobile devices has yet to be optimized. People are spending less via mobile devices than via online e-commerce services and at retail outlets. Merchandise purchases account for about 23 percent of the total value forecast for 2017.
Moreover, the report has shown that money transfer value continues to increase because users are transacting much more frequently (although at lower values) due to the wider availability of services and to transaction costs that are lower than those of traditional bank services. This makes money transfer a leading use case, forecast to account for almost 69 percent of the total value in 2017.
Additionally, bill payment value is expected to grow 44 percent in 2013 and have consistent growth through the forecast period. This is due to higher value per transaction figures as more consumers in developed markets perform bill payments via mobile banking services along with consumers in emerging markets who are transacting at higher values originally forecast. Bill payments are set to account for about 5 percent of the total value forecast for 2017.
From a regional perspective, Asia/Pacifics transaction value is expected to grow 38 percent in 2013 to reach USD 74 billion. Deployments in developed markets such as South Korea and Singapore and in developing markets such as India are expected drive healthy growth in this region. As a result, in 2016, Asia/Pacific will overtake Africa to become the largest region by transaction value, reaching USD 165 billion. Africas transaction value is forecast to reach USD 160 billion in 2016. While Africa will still experience strong growth through the forecast period, companies are still searching for the most suitable business model for mobile money in their local markets.
North Americas transaction value is forecast to grow 53 percent in 2013, reaching USD 37 billion, up from USD 24 billion in 2012. The region has been impacted by low adoption of NFC payment services and many merchants launching mobile apps in a copycat fashion without a clear winning strategy.
Finally, the report has found that Western Europes transaction value is expected to reach USD 29 billion in 2013, up from USD 19 billion in 2012. The market will experience steady growth through the forecast period, but the forecast growth has been impacted by a reduction in the average number of transactions per user in 2012 as several services struggled and others launched only toward the end of the year. These factors have postponed growth for at least a year.
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