According to BI Intelligences latest US in-store mobile payments forecast, mobile payment volume is expected to reach USD 37 billion in 2015. This is about half their previous estimate for 2015. The downward revision is primarily the result of later-than-expected launches of major mobile wallets from big technology players.
BI Intelligences report also points out that by the end of the forecast period in 2019, they expect volume to reach USD 808 billion, or about 99% of the old estimate. Their forecast is still one of the largest in the industry, and they believe that mobile payments will catch on faster than other research firms suggest as the mobile payment functionality is either already offered or about to be implemented at merchants accounting for a huge chunk of US payment volume.
The research also notes that the number of people who make a mobile payment at least once a year will grow from nearly 8% of the US consumer population in 2014 to 65% by 2019. The growth in mobile payment users will largely be driven by mobile wallet initiatives from Apple, Samsung and Google. When these are in place, 90% of the forthcoming smartphones in the US will come with mobile wallets preinstalled.
Finally, the report also highlights that the sheer number of mobile wallets available or in the works from Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, CurrentC, Google Wallet and others will drive mobile payment adoption as well. This will largely be the result of competitive pressure building between the companies and the bandwagon effect. Adoption will be self-reinforcing — the more consumers and retailers that use or provide mobile in-store payments, the more the behaviour will catch on among others.
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